What is the Altman Z-Score?
The Altman Z-Score is a financial model developed by Edward Altman in 1968 that predicts the likelihood of a company going bankrupt within two years. It combines five financial ratios into a single score: working capital to total assets, retained earnings to total assets, earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) to total assets, market value of equity to total liabilities, and sales to total assets.
The model assigns weights to each ratio based on historical bankruptcy data. A Z-Score above 3.0 indicates low bankruptcy risk, while a score below 1.8 signals high distress risk. Scores between 1.8 and 3.0 fall in a “gray zone” where the company may be financially stressed but not necessarily headed for bankruptcy.
Why it matters for investors
The Altman Z-Score helps you identify companies that may be heading toward financial distress before it becomes obvious in other metrics. A low Z-Score doesn’t guarantee bankruptcy, but it flags companies with deteriorating financial health that warrant extra scrutiny. This is especially valuable for value investors who might otherwise be tempted by seemingly cheap stocks.
However, the Z-Score was originally designed for manufacturing companies and may be less accurate for service firms, tech companies, or businesses with different capital structures. It also relies on market value, which can be volatile and may not reflect true financial health during market panics or bubbles.
How Stock Analyzer scores it
| Score | Z-Score Range | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| E | Below 1.8 | High bankruptcy risk — financial distress likely |
| C | 1.8 – 3.0 | Gray zone — moderate risk, requires investigation |
| A | 3.0+ | Low bankruptcy risk — financially healthy |
What to watch out for
The Altman Z-Score is a statistical model based on historical data, not a crystal ball. Companies can recover from low Z-Scores through restructuring, asset sales, or improved operations. Conversely, companies with high Z-Scores can still fail due to fraud, sudden market shifts, or management mistakes.
Always use the Z-Score alongside other financial health indicators like debt-to-equity ratios, interest coverage, and cash flow trends. For non-manufacturing companies, consider industry-specific financial health metrics that may be more appropriate than the standard Z-Score model.